According to Inform Telecoms & Media: Globally, there will be a big upsurge in traffic for most mobile data services over the next five years, largely driven by the spread of smartphones and a 23% increase in the number of mobile users.
In 2016, the average UK mobile user will be streaming and downloading 14 times as much music and video on their handset as in 2011. Text (SMS) and picture (MMS) messaging traffic will continue to grow, but at a much slower pace than most other mobile data services. On average, UK mobile users sent 168 SMSes and one MMS a month in 2011, compared to the 180 SMSes and still only one MMS they will be sending in 2016.
Usage of Internet-derived messaging services, namely instant messaging and e-mail, will see higher growth. For example, compared to the UK monthly average of 51 mobile instant messages sent in 2011, users will be sending 148 in 2016. However, the services that put the greatest strain on mobile networks won’t necessarily be the ones that bring the most revenue.
“The top three data guzzlers on mobile phones over the next five years will be applications, video streaming and web browsing – in that order of importance,” says Guillermo Escofet, senior analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media. “Yet, the top revenue earners in 2016 will be web browsing first, followed by P2P SMS and applications. Video streaming will represent less than 1% of mobile data revenue in 2016, despite hogging a third of handset traffic.”
The growth in traffic will far outstrip the growth in revenues. Global mobile data traffic will grow from 3.89 trillion megabytes in 2011 to 39.75 trillion megabytes in 2016, amounting to a tenfold increase. By contrast, global mobile data revenues will grow from US$325.8 billion in 2011 to US$627.5 billion in 2016, amounting to a twofold increase.
And although the revenue pie will grow, the slice kept by mobile operators will shrink. If we exclude data and SMS/MMS – over whose sale operators have a monopoly – the percentage for operators of what users pay for all other data services – anything from downloading a song to making purchases via a mobile wallet – will drop from 56% in 2011 to 41% in 2016. For UK operators, the share will drop from 48% to 31%.
About the Mobile Content and Applications Forecasts
Informa says: “The Mobile Content and Applications Forecasts report is the industry authority and is the only in-depth report that provides data, forecasts and analysis of the entire mobile content, applications and data services market. The report provides the most comprehensive forecasts on 30+ data services including mobile messaging (SMS, MMS, IM, e-mail), mobile entertainment (ringtones, ringback tones, music full-tracks, music streaming, mobile games, mobile TV and video), mobile Internet, mobile payments and banking, mobile social networking, location-based services and mobile applications.”
