COLUMN 27/10/2022

Liz Gerard’s Notebook

In a notebook special, Liz looks at how the Mail covered and sought to influence the outcome of the recent leadership battles in the Conservative party, from Johnson’s fall, through Truss’s rise and fall to the eventual elevation of Sunak to No 10.

By Liz Gerard

It’s a new dawn for Britain and our new king can apparently leave it to our new prime minister to look after the country. Suddenly, Britain’s biggest-selling and most influential newspaper is putting its faith in Rishi Sunak.

It’s been quite the journey since Boris Johnson was forced out of Downing Street at the beginning of the summer. “What the hell have they done?”, it demanded back then – when it had no doubt that Sunak was the key villain of the piece. For it was his resignation that removed the bung from the dyke and brought the deluge that followed.

It mattered not that Johnson was defenestrated on a matter of integrity; because his ministers weren’t prepared to carry on lying for him. To the Mail, Johnson was a winner with a huge public mandate. Everyone knew his faults, but these should be overlooked in the interests of the bigger picture.

Still, what was done was done and, with only the occasional wistful backward glance, the paper set about making sure it got the person it wanted into Downing Street. And that person was Liz Truss.

Johnson’s resignation and his period as “caretaker” prime minister unwilling to hand over to anyone else or to do anything (other than go on holiday) that might tie the hands of his successor, led to a summer of suspended animation for the country, leaving it without effective government as economic storms built up. It took the Conservative party two months to choose his successor. This did not trouble the Mail, which said members should take their time because they would have only one shot at finding the right person. It took the Mail two days.

While counselling ‘don’t rush’, it was also urging MPs to “coalesce” – a word it would use a lot in the ensuing months – around a unity figure, one who could represent the right and give the membership a “real choice”. In other words someone who could beat Rishi Sunak.

At the time, the Conservatives were some ten points behind Labour in the polls. The Mail was convinced that Labour could never win an election, but it feared that Keir Starmer would “cobble together” a “coalition of chaos” with the SNP, the LibDems and the Greens that might keep the Tories out of office. Now Labour is some 37 points ahead and, if an election were held tomorrow, might very well wipe the Conservatives out. It seems the Mail was right to be worried.

Over the course of that leadership campaign, the Mail promoted and projected Truss way beyond her obvious talents, just as it had done with “strong and stable, crush the saboteurs” Theresa May during the Brexit traumas of the last decade. First it set out to destroy the main threat to her place on the final ballot paper – Penny Mordaunt – and then to discredit the man who was clear favourite for the job – Rishi Sunak. (At the same time, it was punctilious in crediting him for the measures he took, including furlough, to keep businesses afloat during the pandemic. After all, he might win and the Mail would then have to “get behind him” – as it was to urge Tories to do with Truss – and sell him to the country.)

In truth, the Mail had never been a big fan of Sunak, particularly after his NI increase, which was introduced (though the paper prefers not to mention this) to fulfil Boris Johnson’s ambition to “fix social care”.

It didn’t think the public were big fans either. And the overriding priority of its coverage of the Tory party shenanigans since the beginning of July has been electability. Leader after leader has focused not on how a new prime minister might serve the country and improve its inhabitants’ lives, but about the risks of the Conservatives being consigned to oblivion, of Starmer the socialist being allowed anywhere near power.

Threat from the Left

The “Left” (later transformed by Truss into the “anti-growth coalition”) has grown into a monstrous threat that includes not only the official opposition, Nicola Sturgeon, the Civil Service and the BBC, but half the Tory party as well. The appointment of Jeremy Hunt and Grant Shapps to replace Kwasi Kwarteng and Suella Braverman was a “liberal left coup”. Sunak, a committed Brexiteer who is happy to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda and to privatise Channel 4, is not right-wing enough for Ted Verity and Paul Dacre.

To keep Sunak out of No 10, they did all they could to portray Liz Truss as the country’s saviour. She was given three guest columns and two interviews, all of which produced lead stories for the paper. Only Michael Howard was allowed to go in to bat for Sunak.

The paper was delighted by her victory – “Cometh the hour, cometh the woman” – and proclaimed in a leader, “the Tory fightback starts today”. Once installed, she wasted no time in getting Kwarteng to announce the tax cuts and spending spree she had promised throughout the campaign. The ones Sunak repeatedly denounced as fairytale economics.

The Mail message all along was that Sunak was wrong and she was right. When the “fiscal event” took place – so called because it obviated the need for any independent outside scrutiny – the paper was thrilled. “At last!” it cried, “a true Tory budget”.

When the sky fell in, the paper – which prizes loyalty above almost any other quality – stuck with Truss through thick and thin. She had been right, the markets were over-reacting. The Bank of England was to blame, City slickers were to blame. The IMF was to blame. Putin was to blame. Again, the editorials focused on the need for unity, on Tory MPs’ ‘duty’ to get behind the prime minister. Many pints were drunk in many last chance saloons.

One by one, columnists, from Andrew Neil and Sarah Vine to Stephen Glover, expressed growing qualms. But only in her administration’s death throes did the paper itself criticise her – and then for her “bungled” presentation, not her policies. Only at the very bitter end did it desert her.

It’s hard to fault the Mail on grounds of consistency over this period. It has said time and again that the Tories must unite behind their chosen leader, that the economy had been stagnating for too long (under, it must be said, 12 years of Conservative rule), that it is imperative that the party wins the next election.

Everything is viewed through that prism. Where the paper has addressed the hardships families are facing, through – among other things – rising prices and mortgage payments, it has seemed not to have been out of any great concern for their plight, per se, but for fear of how they might in future turn against the government. The paper has a vision of how the country should be run. It may not be to everyone’s tastes, but it has been single-minded in pursuing that vision.

Now, after two months of stasis followed by two months of “crisis”, it has reluctantly concluded that the disloyal former chancellor who got us into this mess – the Mail’s characterisation, not mine – is the man to get us out of it. It seems not to recognise, let alone accept, that it had any part in creating the situation we have found ourselves in. Forever the optimist, it is again claiming – this time on that “new dawn” front page – that the “Tory fightback starts here”.

This, then, is a record of how the paper travelled along that road, all the while believing that anyone but Boris Johnson was to blame for the upheaval in July and that everyone but the Mail was to blame for the chaos that ensued.

Strap yourselves in. It’s a long haul.

July

July 8

What the hell have they done?

Boris Johnson has resigned and the Mail is beside itself with anger. Besides the splash, there are 18 pages inside, mostly focused on how great Johnson was and what a mistake it was to get rid of him. The first spread to look to the future is 12 and 13, which leads on Liz Truss.

The leader looks back at all of Johnson’s achievements, never mind that he broke the rules and ‘dissembled’, and surveys the field gathering to succeed him:

Nadhim Zahawi has a head for business, but treacherously knifed the prime minister hours after being appointed chancellor.

For standing up to Russia, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is popular with the grassroots.

But could even his family pick him out of a line-up?

If ex-Health Secretary Sajid Javid and former Chancellor Rishi Sunak really were the paragons of integrity they claim, they'd have spent every waking hour respectively tackling record NHS waiting lists and the cost-of-living squeeze, not plotting to oust Mr Johnson.

By contrast, Liz Truss has performed with great aplomb at the Foreign Office, especially standing up to Brussels' bullying in her battle to fix the flawed Northern Ireland Protocol.

July 9

The knives are out for the “treacherous” Tory MPs whose knives were in Boris’s back as the Mail splashes on “Red Wall backlash at Tory traitors”. No names are mentioned, but the third par of the lead notes that Rishi Sunak was the first to declare himself a candidate and a picture of the former chancellor as a boy accompanies the story.

The five inside news pages consider potential candidates, with ‘Slick Rishi’ leading the main spread.

In the comment section, Mick Hume rails at the Brexit-loathing elite and a Saturday essay by Andrew Neil quotes the Wall Street Journal saying, “Britain is in the grip of an inflation crisis that Johnson made worse at every turn.”

The leader is concerned about the prospect of a Labour-LibDem stitch-up that could keep the Conservatives out of power for decades, so says the Tories must not choose their next leader with “undue haste”:

After the candidates are whittled down to two, their policies and suitability for high office must be rigorously tested. After all, the Tories will only get one chance.

Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak yesterday became the first big beast to announce his candidacy. To his immense credit, he is an original Brexiteer, not an opportunist convert, and he emphasises Tory values - aspiration, hard work and family.

However, some won't easily forgive his role in Mr Johnson's downfall.

The leader continues that the paper is keeping an open mind, but it has a tick-list of “true blue” policies: tax cuts, no backsliding on Brexit, tough on Northern Ireland, tighter borders to keep out the “tsunami” of Channel migrants, and ending the wokery infecting our schools and public services.

July 11

The battle lines are being drawn, as the Mail leader puts it. The smearing of Sunak begins – in the sense that he is caught, according to the splash, in a “Cummings toxic smears storm”. Sunak is not actually doing any smearing. It’s Dirty Dom who is accused of saying nasty things about his potential rivals.

Liz Truss announces that she is standing, earning her the first spread with the heading “I’ll be the unity candidate”, with a sidebar that starts “forget Rishi”. The Mail is already gunning for Penny Mordaunt, with her being accused of gaffe and wokery on the second inside spread.

The leader produces the first almost-endorsement for Truss:

Mr Sunak insists tax cuts are not possible until we begin clearing our eye-watering Covid debts. Others, however, are determined to wrestle back the Tories' reputation as a low-tax party to spur growth.

Pleasingly, several agree with the Mail's tireless campaign to spike the foolish and damaging national insurance hike, which callously hit voters at the moment the cost of living squeeze began biting viciously.

Liz Truss is one. She's also hugely experienced and, as Foreign Secretary, has been strong on Ukraine and the Northern Ireland protocol. During her Westminster career, she has cleared every obstacle placed in front of her - much to her detractors' irritation…

Ex-Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt, however, is a non-runner for huge swathes of the party after calling for a brutal China-style lockdown and his pro-EU sympathies.

July 12

The “stop Rishi” campaign is in full flow, with Truss making the splash with “Back me or it’ll be Rishi”, the inference being that the Mail thinks that would be a bad thing. And to press home that point subtly, the previous day’s “Rishi smears” front page is republished next to the titlepiece as part of a puff for a subscription offer.

Truss is the main picture on the first spread of five inside pages, the second has Sunak promising to cut taxes after he’s got a “grip” on inflation (the Mail’s quote marks on grip) but being rejected by Lord Frost. A small downpage story reporting polls suggesting that Mordaunt would beat Sunak in the final runoff may look insignificant, but…

The leader – “Tory activists must be given a proper choice” – notes that only Sunak is making a virtue of not cutting tax until inflation is under control and is sceptical of some other candidates’ promises. Sunak is the strong favourite, so far, but the Mail says his record on taxation is shameful and that he has blotted his copybook with his “key role” in toppling Johnson. “If the Right of the Tory party want to stop a Sunak coronation, they must unite behind a single candidate to avoid the risk of splitting their vote. It is imperative that aspirants look long and hard at themselves - and each other - and ask honestly: Who is best placed to beat him?”

July 13

Nominations close and to the Mail’s delight, “Boris assassin” Sajid Javid fails to secure the necessary twenty backers. That leave eight in the ring. With Sunak looking the front-runner before the first ballot, Jacob Rees-Mogg throws his weight behind Truss and writes a page 4 piece for the Mail, attacking Sunak’s tax record. This also makes the splash as “Sunak blasted on ‘socialist’ taxes”.

The first of three inside news spreads is devoted to Javid schadenfreude, the second has Sunak defending his record alongside a colour piece headed ‘Folksy sincerity oozed out of golden boy’s every pore’. The third is an attack on “Part-time Penny” who apparently doesn’t know what a woman is.

A short leader – “Time for pragmatism” – says that the Right must coalesce around one candidate with one thing in mind: who is best placed to beat Keir Starmer.

July 14

The first MPs’ ballot sees Hunt and Zahawi eliminated. Sunak tops the poll with 88 votes and Mordaunt is second with 67. For the Mail, the most important thing is that Liz Truss garnered 50 votes. She makes the splash with, “Unite now or we lose, Truss tells Tory right”.

The story says that bookmakers have installed Mordaunt as favourite and that her “new status” was likely to bring intense scrutiny. Questions were already being raised about whether she had changed her “woke” views to win support. The main picture is not of Truss telling the right to unite, but of Mordaunt “under fire” for “lies” on trans views.

There’s a lot more of that in the body of the leadership coverage, but Mordaunt also shows up on page 4 – without fanfare – in a bylined piece, “Why I will ALWAYS fight for this great nation”, talking about the importance of maintaining and increasing defence spending, the battle for Ukraine, and why she wants the top job.

Then it’s back to business as usual with more Mordaunt backlash on page 8, followed by “Is a shadowy ex-sex party organiser secretly helping Sunak?”, and finally Truss promising to hit the ground [running].

The first leader calls for the Tory right to “get real”:

Truss, has distinguished herself in Cabinet and on the international stage. She is the obvious choice for those who don’t want Sunak or Mordaunt.

The second, “Questions for Penny” urges Mordaunt to “come clean” on her views on gender recognition; the third, headlined, “Defying the doomsters”, notes that the British economy “seems to be doing rather well”.

July 15

Braverman is eliminated in the next MPs’ ballot. Sunak is still ahead, Mordaunt still second, Truss still third, but gaining.

Yesterday’s Mail splash that Mordaunt was likely to face intense scrutiny proves prescient as here she is again on the front page under the headline “Mordaunt under the microscope”.

Inside, two of the three news spreads are devoted to attacking her, while the third is a “booster” for Liz and her “true blue” message, plus a reminder of Sunak’s disloyalty with “So, when did Rishi decide to knife old boss Boris?”

The leader sustains the assault on Mordaunt and encourages Kemi Badenoch to step aside to clear way for Truss:

A candidate who does have a strong and demonstrable Cabinet record is Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.

She embodies the values of traditional Conservatism - low tax, aspirational, meritocratic, anti-woke. And unlike the other front-runners, she remained loyal to Boris to the end. Significantly, she has the endorsement of Lord Frost.

Miss Truss advanced strongly in the second MPs' vote yesterday but remains in third place. She will no doubt harvest many of the eliminated Suella Braverman's votes, but they will not be enough.

July 16

Liz Truss is back in pole position on the front after giving the Mail an interview in which she says she is considering changes to the tax system so that parents can take time off work to care for their families. This is rendered “Liz tax boost for families”. Again, this story is accompanied by a photograph of Penny Mordaunt, again “under the microscope” – this time with Amanda Platell saying that the thought of her being PM fills her with horror.

The three inside spreads have Truss “laying into Rishi” in the first TV debate, Mordaunt being incapable of organising a tea party and a Sunak “petrol bombshell” – he apparently wanted a green levy of fuel that was blocked by No 10. A sidebar on this spread says that as a student he was regarded as not ruthless enough for politics – “and then he knifed Boris”. Another black mark is that he has been endorsed by China.

The leader repeats the mantra that we shouldn’t be having this contest, Boris was best. Mordaunt is hopeless, Badenoch too inexperienced. Sunak was an excellent chancellor through Covid, but brought us the highest taxes for 70 years.

The other candidate of proven ability in a range of cabinet posts is Liz Truss:

As she showed in last night's debate, she's not as polished a public performer as some others. However, call us old-fashioned but at this paper we value substance over style.

In that department, she has consistently shown her mettle. She has negotiated trade deals around the world, stood up to the EU over Northern Ireland and has been unfailingly resolute on Ukraine.

Today she unveils imaginative plans to ease the financial burden on hard-pressed families and carers with targeted tax cuts. Along with pledges to reverse the National Insurance rise, hold down corporation tax and scrap some green levies, she offers true Tory solutions to real-world problems.

Not only is she the candidate with the most impressive CV, but also the one who most embodies the Conservative principles of aspiration, family values and low taxes.

July 18

The “stop Penny” juggernaut ploughs on with a lead on her meeting the leader of the Muslim Council of Britain when the Government had a policy of “not engaging” with the group. The meeting had taken place 17 months earlier and she tweeted about it at the time, but it is now splashworthy.

Inside, coverage of the race includes a spread expanding the criticism of Mordaunt, a second on the previous night’s TV debate, with “Liz lashing out at Rishi”, and a single page headlined, “Tax cuts aren’t a fairytale Rishi”.

The leader reiterates the paper’s view that Tory members must be given a “real” choice. Sunak and Mordaunt are too like-minded and Mordaunt is unsuitable. Badenoch or Truss must get on the final ballot paper, preferably Truss.:

Mr Sunak repeated his warning that to cut taxes now would be unwise, promising only jam tomorrow. Does he understand that people are facing genuine hardship?

In contrast, Miss Truss demonstrated her passionate commitment to low-tax, small state Conservatism, by promising to ease the burden on hard-pressed families immediately, rather than waiting for some hypothetical future date.

July 19

Tom Tugenhat is eliminated in the fourth ballot. Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss are still the top three, but Mordaunt saw her vote decline, prompting the splash “Mordaunt No 10 bid hits the buffers”.

There is surprise, however, that Sunak remains so far in front as supporters of Suella Braverman, who was eliminated in the previous round were expected to line up behind Truss and that didn’t seem to have happened.

The first of three inside spreads therefore has the Sunak camp being suspected of dirty tricks to ensure that he doesn’t face Truss in the final vote. This has shades of the final MPs’ ballot in 2019 when Boris Johnson supporters were said to have ‘lent’ their votes to Jeremy Hunt to make sure Michael Gove didn’t make the final cut. The Mail doesn’t mention this though.

This spread is, however, dominated by the rise of Badenoch.

The second is devoted to a further attack on Mordaunt – ‘Another boss blasts part-time Penny’ – and the third has more blasting. This time, barnstorming Johnson blasting the plotters who unseated him. He gave this bravura address in the Commons, but is photographed rocking a Top Gun Tom Cruise look in – and walking away from a warplane.

That word is back again in the leader as the Mail tells the right to back Truss:

Traditionalist MPs must wise up and coalesce behind one candidate. Miss Truss is the obvious choice, given her strong track record and she is best placed to overtake Miss Mordaunt.

July 20

Badenoch is eliminated in the next ballot, leaving just Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss in the race. For some time, polls have suggested that either of the women would beat Sunak in the final vote and the Mail is determined that it should be Truss.

The splash has her allies warning the Sunak team against ‘dirty backroom deals’ to get Mordaunt on the final ballot paper to avoid facing Truss.

Inside, the first of two spreads says Truss is now the grassroots favourite and has a Jason Groves analysis describing Sunak’s team as being masters of the “dark arts”. The second is another attack on Mordaunt. This time it’s “Penny in trade storm” and suspicions that she will try to rewrite history.

The leader dismisses Mordaunt (again) as unsuitable and says that Sunak supporters are suspected of deploying dirty tricks against Truss, who is “building up a formidable head of steam”:

A cynical stitch-up would be an antidemocratic outrage, denying activists a choice between Conservative ideologies.

This paper has always argued the last battle should be between Miss Truss and Mr Sunak. Both are experienced politicians. Both have deftly handled daunting Cabinet challenges. But Miss Truss is a low-tax, small-state Tory and Mr Sunak is closer to being a third way liberal.’

July 21

We’re down to the final two – Liz v Rishi. Mordaunt misses the cut by eight votes. To what extent that was due to the Mail’s campaigning - and whether we were denied a more effective prime minister or spared an even greater catastrophe – we shall never know.

The Mail buries the final figures in its exclusive splash: Truss writing for the Mail promising an emergency budget and her plans to build an aspiration nation and to stop people dissing our country.

Her bylined piece appears on page 4, with promises of immediate tax cuts and her confidence that she will beat Labour at the next election.

Further back, there are two spreads, Rishi being mocked for looking out of place in Birmingham, and a comparison of “smug head boy” and “Maggie’s sterner sister”. Glover likes Truss’s policies, but isn’t so sure about her presentation; the leader says ‘What a relief’.

It’s got the two candidates it wants, it’s up to members of course, but it’s clear who the Mail would prefer in No 10.

July 22

The leadership contest is pushed back in the book and reduced to four pages, starting on page 11. This has the two going head to head on tax policy, with Truss saying Sunak would bring recession, Sunak saying Truss would bring higher interest rates.

Truss – “I’m Labour’s worst nightmare” – gets centre stage on the only spread and, even though she’s now out of the running, Mordaunt comes under attack again on the final page, along with Sunak saying he’d continue with the privatisation of Channel 4.

The leader, with its prediction that the country’s economic future is at stake, is worth reproducing in full:

To readers heartily sick of the Conservative leadership circus, think yourselves lucky.

The political mayhem in Italy, where citizens must elect their 70th government in almost as many years, makes the Tory contest look a picture of stability.

Yet make no mistake: Severe economic turbulence awaits whoever becomes Britain's next prime minister. Debt interest payments have hit a record high and monthly government borrowing is at eyewatering levels, fuelled by soaring inflation.

The Mail is attracted to Liz Truss's plan to bulldoze the Whitehall 'blob' into immediate tax cuts, intending to boost economic growth and ease the spiralling cost of living. But with the nation's finances creaking so badly, will that be possible?

Rishi Sunak, meanwhile, wants to maintain fiscal responsibility - another traditional Tory value (even though he sprayed public money around like there was no tomorrow while chancellor). That would mean delaying tax cuts which could help painfully squeezed families.

This is why it is so vital to scrutinise the competing visions of the two candidates as they battle for the keys to No 10 - and not just naively swallow their grand promises. The economic future of Britain is at stake.

July 23

The race is again pushed back in the book, with three single pages: Sunak is “under fire for Covid fraud billions”, while Truss promises to “throw off EU chains”. There is still a lingering hope that Johnson could be added to the ballot paper.

Meanwhile, the Mail asks a panel of eight ‘experts’ to compare the two candidates’ economic policies. Four back Truss, two Sunak and two are undecided. The Truss backers include Patrick Minford, the inspiration for Trussonomics. Sunak supporters include Black Wednesday chancellor Norman Lamont.

Further back, for a Saturday treat, sits an Andrew Pierce exposé of how Johnson was “betrayed in a very Tory coup”. The first words in the strapline are “Rishi Sunak”.

July 25

The contest returns to the front with a Truss camp attack on Sunak over his attitude to China, while the inside spread is split between Truss promising to not to “cower” to European courts over our borders and a call to “Bring back Boris”. The leader is not convinced by anyone’s “tough talk” on borders.

July 26

Another TV debate keeps the story on the front and Truss gets the splash again, vowing to curb militant unions. Inside, a spread accuses Sunak of a new Project Fear, while Truss has a page lead on countering the ‘Whitehall blob’. Nadine Dorries weighs in to criticise Sunak’s expensive suits and praise Truss’s economy earrings. The leader applauds Truss for her pledge to ‘take on the wreckers’.

July 27

The contest moves back in the book, with Sunak on a £4bn energy bills U-turn and Truss saying she’ll force police to investigate real crimes, not Twitter rows. The big news of the day is TalkTV presenter Kate McCann fainting while hosting yet another TV debate and Truss first being aghast and then rushing to her aid.

The leader bemoans the lack of boosterism in the contest and urges both candidates to paint a more positive picture:

Now the IMF forecasts the UK will have the worst performing economy of any developed nation next year, the case for balancing the Covid-blighted books looks less important than sprinting for growth.

So Miss Truss's plan to turbocharge the struggling economy with immediate tax cuts if she becomes prime minister is right… Whoever wins the Tory race can drag Britain out of the economic mire by unshackling dynamic businesses in cutting edge sectors - and not selling them off to the highest foreign bidder. That, and channelling Boris's positivity, can help beat Labour.

July 30

After a quiet couple of days, another TV debate is covered with another inside spread. This time the verdict is that Sunak has been “mauled over tax record” while Truss has won over the “turnip Taliban” after 13 long years. These are apparently people in her Norfolk constituency who don’t care for her.

The leader sees Truss growing into her campaign:

Her economic priorities are immediate tax cuts to stimulate growth, suspension of green levies and a bonfire of stifling regulation - music to the ears of many Tories…

Drawing on her Yorkshire upbringing, she says she has been channelling the spirit of the great Leeds United manager Don Revie. He embodied hard graft, self-belief and an unshakeable determination to win. Essential qualities in a football manger. Even more essential in a prime minister.

August

August 1

The Lionesses’ Euros triumph dominates, but the leadership contest makes a spread on 10 and 11 with Truss promising to free farmers from red tape and Sunak revealing a “radical” tax cut in “last bid to win votes”.

The leader applauds Truss for helping to fend off a “food apocalypse” and has kind words, too, for Sunak on plans to fine patients who miss NHS appointments. Both show that they are far superior to the cowardly and “achingly metropolitan” Starmer who might “struggle to identify basic farmyard animals”.

August 2

The ballot papers have gone out to Conservative party members and Truss has given an interview to the Mail that provides the paper with another splash. This time, it’s “I’ll halt junk food tax”. The sub-head and inside spread tell readers that the previously maligned Mordaunt is now in Camp Liz. A small story at the bottom of the spread has William Hague urging members to vote Sunak.

The leader celebrates Truss’s boosterism, comparing her promise of immediate tax cuts with Sunak’s talk of 4p off the basic rate of income tax by the end of the next parliament – “if a week is a long time in politics, seven years is a geological epoch”.

Truss, it says, is growing steadily stronger and clearly relishing the hustings:

Miss Truss has already proved as Foreign Secretary both her steadfast support for Ukraine in the face of Vladimir Putin's barbarism and her determination to stand equally firm against EU bullying over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

With each passing day, more senior Tories are declaring their support for Miss Truss - most recently former leadership contenders Penny Mordaunt and Nadhim Zahawi.

A Boris Johnson loyalist to the end, Miss Truss is mapping out a 'boosterist' agenda to take forward his legacy. It is clearly resonating with the parliamentary party and the grassroots membership.

August 3

We’ve known where the Mail was heading all along and now it comes out and says it in a top-of-the-front blue panel and full-page leader: “the Mail backs Truss”.

The endorsement comes the day after Truss performs the first of her many U-turns, backing away from a suggestion that regional pay boards should be established so that public sector workers were paid less than those in the South. This is presented as a “despite” bit of a story that focuses on her growing poll lead.

The main story from the campaign is her pledge to lift the threat of jail over people who do not pay their TV licence. The story reports that three-quarters of the 114,000 people convicted of licence dodging in 2019 were women and that Truss was “alarmed at the number of women being locked up”. It does not report that you cannot be jailed for not having a licence – only for contempt if you refuse to pay the resultant fine. Only two people have been jailed over this since 2019.

But the big news for the Mail is its verdict that Truss should be prime minister. The election shouldn’t be taking place, Boris should still be in power, but the final two are worthy candidates and either would “wipe the floor with Sir Keir Starmer (aka Captain Crasheroonie Snoozefest)”:

Truss has grown in stature during the contest to become an authentic standard-bearer for low-tax, small-state Conservatism.

Blessed with Yorkshire grit, Miss Truss has the boldness, imagination and strength of conviction to tap into it and build on what Boris began… Most importantly, she can unite the party and end this depressing spasm of blue-on-blue warfare…

Success will require iron discipline in Downing Street and a government of all available talents – hopefully including Mr Sunak.

The “ocean-going dud” Starmer could cobble together a “gimcrack government “with the LibDems, SNP, Greens and the rest of the deluded Left, but we don’t doubt Miss Truss has the guts, gumption and guile to stop that happening…the Mail believes Miss Truss is able, willing and ready for the task.

August 4

A quiet day. Sajid Javid changes camps to line up behind Truss and, with the Bank of England about to raise interest rates again, Alex Brummer says that all the doom and gloom about the economy is misplaced…

August 5

…But if there is a problem – such as a mortgage time bomb for millions – it’s all the fault of Andrew Bailey for not putting up interest rates earlier. The governor is running out of credit and Truss will review the Bank of England’s independence.

She also says there doesn’t have to be a recession and she is now “shimmying” on set for her appearance in the final TV debate. In this, she is going “face-to-face” with Sunak, but there is no sign of him on the page. The photograph is of Truss sitting down with Kay Burley, both in red dresses and high heels.

August 6

Business leaders and economists agree that the Bank of England is far too gloomy. Truss promises to do everything she can to help struggling families, while Sunak puts his foot in it by telling people in Tunbridge Wells that he had diverted funds from deprived areas.

Andrew Neil says the Left believes that Truss is “inexperienced, inconsistent, unimpressive, ill-informed, accident-prone, with a weak grasp of the facts and leaden in action, whether under attack or on the offensive”. He adds: “The Left is not entirely wrong.”

Neil believes that it is not Starmer’s Left that Truss has to worry about:

It is what is best described as the Left Blob, which is now omnipresent in British public life, dominant in the citadels of power, including most of the media (above all the broadcasters), the Civil Service, the NHS, the legal system (including the judiciary), education (especially the universities), social media, most public bodies and private charities. It's even wheedling its way into boardrooms.

Warming to his theme (which could have been the template for Truss’s anti-growth coalition riff at the party conference), he continues:

Truss has no idea what is about to be unleashed on her. Constant and vitriolic assaults on social media, especially by the deranged Twitterati, to rouse the mob.

A daily pounding on broadcast news, which has already largely decided it hates her. Relentless snide comments on BBC 'comedy' shows. Subtle put-downs from the panjandrums of grand public bodies. Not-so-subtle put downs from our cultural tsars.

In all this, The Blob will be assisted by Remain Tory grandees like John Major and Michael Heseltine who've already concluded she's a wrong 'un. Even Dominic Cummings, fresh from his (almost certain) failure to install Rishi Sunak as prime minister, will likely get in on the act.

Truss is vulnerable because she makes too many mistakes, too many U-turns and offers too many hostages to fortune. So she will need the strongest of chiefs of staff in Downing Street, one with experience and authority, to impose order on the Truss operation – but also to take her aside and tell her when she's about to make a mistake.

And he concludes:

It's a tall order. It's not clear she has it in her to do it. There is a chance it will all unravel before winter is out and the Tories would be back in yet another leadership contest, which will stretch voters' patience to breaking point.

August 8

With Truss firmly ahead, the leadership contest takes a back seat to the Mail’s efforts to get the inquiry (kangaroo court) into whether Boris Johnson misled parliament, halted. But there’s still a spread on her promising to scrap the National Insurance increase the moment she moves into No 10.

August 10

Truss has another pop at the Sunak “doomsters”. Stephen Glover has seen enough. Truss is going to win, and win handsomely. It’s time for Sunak to step aside so that she can get on with the job – “We need a functioning PM and we need her now.”

August 11

Truss wows her audience in a “laid-back” chat with GB News at a Greater Manchester working men’s club. And promises to “use British law” to send asylum seekers to Rwanda. The paper is hardly bothering to report anything Sunak says now as the race looks over and done with. He is facing an “exodus” of backers to his rival, but he says he’d rather lose than win on a false promise.

August 18

Inflation hits 10%, the highest for 40 years, and the Institute for Fiscal Studies says that tax-cutting plans are implausible and would harm the country. On the same spread, the Mail runs a guest column by Michael Howard, saying there’s only one person who can lead Britain out of the crisis and win the next election: Rishi Sunak.

Over the page, Truss promises not to back down in the dispute with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol.

August 22

With the result of the contest pretty much done and dusted, the leadership race makes far fewer appearances in the Mail. But Truss gets a spread when she insists that she will help families and small businesses hardest hit by the rising cost of living.

August 26

The new energy price cap is to be announced today, and is expected to mean average bills of around £3,500. So Truss writes another guest column to make a splash for the Mail, promising, “I’ll get you through energy crisis”. The lead story also points to her lifting the ban on fracking and speculation that putative chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng had a £100bn plan to freeze bills for two years, “but insiders played down the prospect of it being approved”. Rishi Sunak warns against “unfunded tax cuts”.

The leader endorses the strategy and says Truss must stick to her guns:

She must face down the irreconcilable eco-lobby and the obstructionists. Why not, though, win round communities living in the shadow of fracking operations or nuclear plants by offering them free energy?

For 30 years, successive governments have stuck their fingers in their ears and hoped the problem of Britain's energy needs simply disappeared.

Our woes show just how important it is that a Tory PM finally grasps the nettle.

August 27

Energy prices dominate the news and make the splash and two spreads for the Mail. The two candidates for PM do not appear to have anything to say about this, but Jason Groves has a warning for Liz Truss and her stated dislike for handouts at the foot of one of the spreads.

Andrew Neil is back in the Saturday essay slot with another warning for her. Having cautioned Truss earlier this month that her biggest enemy would be not Starmer’s Labour but “the Left Blob”, Neil now tells her to watch out not for Labour MPs opposite, but the Tories behind her.

Careerists, One Nation Tories, hardline Brexiteers and backbenches full of “grandees” such as Gove, Sunak and Raab, will all be on her case. Keeping discipline would be difficult. Neil’s advice is to avoid gimmicks, to quietly ditch most of her campaign trail promises and to target help where it’s needed:

It’s a tall order, even for a prime minister of great experience and proven competence. Truss has neither attribute. But her own troops need to give her a chance. If they cut up rough from the start, they have no chance of succeeding.

The Tories are in the last-chance saloon. If they make a hash of this winter then the game is up. They won't have time to recover before an election.

The leader on the same page looks forward to the end of a “tortuous and needlessly vituperative leadership campaign” and proclaims that Truss has the imagination, boldness and fortitude to succeed in the top job. The Tories, it says, must show unity and competence. A PM needs to be able to get on with the job and not be looking over their shoulder for plotters.

September

September 5

It’s results day. And the Mail is cross with the BBC for having Josh Widdecombe on Laura Kuenssberg’s inaugural Sunday politics show (Yesterday’s Mail on Sunday was cross with the BBC because Have I Got News for You host Jack Dee quoted a Tory MP calling Johnson the C-word). This accounts for a splash – “Now BBC comic mocks Liz Truss” – and a spread, while another spread has the PM-in-waiting promising that she won’t allow people to “talk this great country down”.

The leader is thankful that the contest is finally over and that Truss – who has been like a “caged animal” for the past few days – is ready to hit the ground running with a detailed plan to deal with soaring energy bills within a week and an emergency tax-cutting budget within a month:

Though the poorest will require most support, she stressed that tax cuts should not be seen just 'through the prism of redistribution'. They are for the benefit of all and intended to stimulate growth, she said. And with growth comes prosperity. As John F Kennedy famously put it, a rising tide lifts all boats.

This was once a fundamental principle of Conservatism but it has been obscured by the Covid emergency, during which massive state handouts became the norm. This has led to borrowing at levels never before seen in peacetime and took the national debt to nearly £2.4trillion – money that will have to be repaid by future generations.

Miss Truss is right to stress that it is only through growth and improved productivity that this mountain of debt will be reduced and the public finances put back on track.

We cannot and should not expect state handouts to cover every misfortune…

But we are not, as the professional catastrophists love to present it, approaching some kind of Armageddon. There is nothing we haven't faced and come through in the past.

Miss Truss promised to be honest with the country about the scale of the problems ahead. But like Boris Johnson, she has faith that, together, we will overcome them…

Through her vision, energy and initiative, the Tory fightback can begin today.

September 6

The campaign is finally over and Liz Truss is installed as prime minister. The Mail celebrates with a poster front headlined “Cometh the hour, cometh the woman” and says she plans a “shock and awe” strategy to “stamp her mark” on Britain. Seven inside news pages are supplemented by Andrew Neil urging her to push ahead with fracking and a full-page leader.

Neil says that she will have to junk most of the “ridiculous” 149 policy pledges she made on the campaign trail and that only two tax cuts – the NI and corporation tax reversals – should go ahead. Combining multi-billion handouts to ease the energy pain with multi-billion tax cuts would send the pound plummeting and lock in high inflation.

There are signs, he continues, that Team Truss realise they can't have it all:

On Sunday, the likely new chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, took to the columns of the Financial Times to reassure the markets that, though there would be some “fiscal loosening” (ie. more debt), a Truss government would be “fiscally responsible” (no magic money tree)…

For the moment, she must focus on cushioning as many millions of households as possible from the energy crisis. In the first six months of her premiership, nothing else will really matter, even tax cuts, however much Tory tax-cutters complain.

The wellbeing of families up and down the land will depend on her getting this right. So will her future as Prime Minister, which will be short-lived if she gets it wrong.

The leader, meanwhile, repeats the paper’s wish that Johnson were still in office, but urges Tories to unite behind their new leader. It calls on Truss to appoint a government of all talents, including her rivals for the leadership, and wishes her well.

It believes that a “half-decent leader” could turn round Labour’s ten-point lead in the polls:

If Miss Truss can't turn that around, oblivion beckons.

Sir Keir Starmer can scarcely hope to win an overall majority, but he could cobble together a coalition of chaos.

With the support of Lib Dems, Scots Nats, Greens and any other fringe party he could drag in, Sir Keir could become a lame-duck PM at the head of a shambolic minority government.

In short order we could see the break-up of the United Kingdom, a tax and spend orgy, the effects of which would dwarf today's economic woes, and proportional representation, consigning the mother of Parliaments to the muddle and misery of endless coalition.

September 7

Formally asked by the Queen to form a government, Truss gets to work with the promise of a two-year energy price freeze and the prediction that “together we can ride out the storm”.

An “historic special edition” of the Mail includes a colour splash by Jan Moir angled on the rain giving way to the sun as Truss walked into Downing Street and celebrating her “lack of polish” as proving her authenticity.

Inside, some twelve pages on the new administration focus on the prime minister’s desire to build an “aspiration nation”, and on her new cabinet, which may be diverse but – contrary to the advice from the Mail and its columnists – excludes anyone who didn’t back her for the leadership.

City Editor Alex Brummer applauds her “audacious” energy price plan, saying it will help families and curb inflation. She has, he writes, got off to a flying start, although he notes that it will be a challenge for Kwarteng to finance the £140 billion of borrowing her plans will probably require. Money Mail in the back of the book kicks off with the question “Will a blast of Trussonomics put cash in YOUR pocket?”

The leader says that if the Tories are to win the next election, Truss hasn’t a second to waste in improving people’s lives, and emphasises that the economic crisis is global – the result of a combination of the pandemic and Putin.

September 8

Liz Truss makes her first appearance at PMQs and officially unveils the much-trailed energy package, including lifting the ban on fracking. Twelve pages, kicked off with the splash on “Liz’s energy revolution”, include Stephen Glover saying Truss is more radical than Thatcher at her most radical and a leader saying she had got off to a “fine start”. A page lead in the middle of the coverage notes that the pound dipped to a 37-year low against the dollar.

September 9

The death of the Queen occupies the first 80-odd pages of the paper. But Truss pops up on the 84-85 spread to claim that her plans will save families more than £1,000 a year.

September 21

The official mourning period for the Queen ends, politicians get back to work and the Mail splashes on “Freedom begins with tax cuts”. The paper is focused on Truss’s role on the international stage – she is in New York for a UN meeting and the front-page picture shows her with friend-or-foe President Macron. Her speech will link prosperity with security and an inside spread reports that she is to promise to increase defence spending. The paper approves. Its leader says:

Having already unveiled a massive package to help families with soaring energy bills, she's now focusing her attention on growing the economy.

The process will begin on Friday with a mini-Budget reversing the recent national insurance hike and scrapping planned corporation tax rises. There are reports she may go further by cutting income tax.

These measures will put more money in people's pockets, create jobs, attract investment and fuel competitiveness. It's a bold and defiant start to her career as Prime Minister - and firmly rooted in traditional Conservative thinking.

Some will say that cutting taxes will fuel inflation and drive up interest rates. But we already have the highest burden since the 1950s. The stale Treasury orthodoxies of the past two decades have failed miserably to deliver substantial growth.

As Miss Truss will say: “We want people to keep more of the money they earn. We believe that freedom trumps instruction.”

It's an unashamedly Tory solution - and one that should make us all better off.

September 22

Truss’s first appearance on the world stage makes the splash with her speech to the UN, declaring “we won’t be cowed by Putin’s nuclear threats”. Inside, a spread predicts that stamp duty will be cut and businesses given more help with energy bills in the “massive” mini-budget on Friday, but “gloomy analysts” warn that the “gamble might not pay off” as interest rates are about to rise again.

September 23

The tax-cutting excitement grows on the morning of the mini-budget (sorry, fiscal event), with a lead promising the biggest tax cuts for 30 years. The leader is fully behind the strategy, saying it will jolt the Tories into life:

Thankfully, the Chancellor and Prime Minister Liz Truss are determined to re-energise the country by taking a more radical approach - turbo-charging growth.

That is why the mini-Budget's centrepiece is the biggest tax giveaway since the 1980s. Mr Kwarteng will reverse the national insurance hike, scrap the planned rise in corporation tax and cut stamp duty.

And a bonfire of red tape will unlock the shackles on business and accelerate crucial infrastructure projects.

The leader goes on to note that Nigel Lawson’s tax-cutting budget helped Margaret Thatcher to win a third general election, and predicts similar good fortune for the Truss team:

There will, of course, be relentless shroud-waving from the Left and the BBC, who claim Mr Kwarteng's audacious agenda merely benefits the rich. But they are wrong, and he must stick doggedly to his guns.

With the country heading into recession, we can't afford to surrender to the failed economic consensus. The Government must do all in its power to stimulate growth.

If the country becomes more prosperous, everyone gets richer. And the Tories, too, will enjoy a political windfall.

September 24

The Mail is overjoyed by Kwasi Kwarteng’s package, hailing it “At last! A true Tory budget”. Inside spreads are upbeat with headings including “Turbo boost to private firms”, “Stamp duty revolution” and “Top rate axed in bonfire of taxes”.

Alex Brummer says the budget will spell the end of Treasury doomsters, Daniel Johnson’s Saturday essay describes Truss as the “Brave, radical TRULY Tory prime minister no one saw coming”, Andrew Neil says it’s a great gamble, but sticking with failed policies from the recent past would have been a greater one – and there’s a chance the markets will soon be pleasantly surprised by how little extra borrowing is required.

Welcoming the era of Trussonomics – “Tory in tooth and claw” – the leader also concedes it is a gamble, but a calculated one:

We can't yet know how well it will pay off. It requires the British people to play their part by increasing productivity in return for keeping more of their own money.

But doing nothing is not an option. The economy is stagnating and in desperate need of a kick-start. Liz Truss and her Chancellor have produced a radical and intellectually coherent plan to achieve that. There is every sign it can work.

The only spots of rain on the parade are the pound dipping and experts asking ‘how WILL Kwasi pay bill?

September 26

The budget hasn’t gone down as well with others – including Tory MPs – as it did with the Mail, and many are eyeing the opening of the markets this morning with trepidation. Far from retreating, Kwarteng has spent the weekend promising that there are more tax cuts in the pipeline – characterised in the Mail splash as “Kwasi’s boost for families”.

There are more of the chancellor’s promises on the 6-7 spread, but all is not quite as joyous as hoped: MPs are warning Truss of a revolt if the pound drops below the dollar and there’s a row brewing in cabinet as Braverman and Badenoch bridle at Truss’s plans to increase immigration.

Further back, on pages 14 and 15, the Mail reports on the start of the Labour party conference under the head “Labour turmoil on income tax”. This is because not all the big beasts agree.

It is already clear that not all Conservative MPs agree with Kwarteng’s plans either. But there has, as yet, been no suggestion of “Tory turmoil”.

September 27

The markets still don’t care for the budget; the pound is falling, mortgage deals are being withdrawn. The Mail homes in on who is to blame for this state of affairs in its splash, “Fury at the City slickers betting against UK plc”.

The “fury” is voiced by two backbench Tory MPs, the speculating “slickers” are a couple of hedge funds. One of these features again inside, alongside two individuals known to have profited from the falling pound – or to have advised people to bet against it - in the past. One is Crispin Odey, a Tory donor (specifically Johnson – he contributed £10,000 to his leadership campaign) who was also once Kwarteng’s boss. Two facts the paper does not mention. (As it turns out, he was apparently grouse shooting on his honeymoon rather than gambling on the markets over the weekend.)

The leader, headlined, “There’s every reason to believe in bold agenda”, remains bullish:

To those who desperately want to see Kwasi Kwarteng’s bold agenda for growth fail, the initial plunge represented a massive vote of no confidence by global investors. In truth, however, the equally rapid rebound suggested yesterday’s early market volatility owed more to speculators trying to make a fast buck than any genuine verdict on the British economy…

Mr Kwarteng delivered a coherent and ambitious Tory plan for growth. With a fair wind and a steady hand on the tiller, there is every reason to believe it can work. But it won’t happen overnight.

On the same page, group business editor Ruth Sutherland reinforces the argument, saying the prime minister and chancellor must hold their nerve, concluding: “The plan to jolt the economy back to health through tax cuts and reforms to free up business is the right — the only — recipe for long-term success.”

September 28

The alarm on international markets at Britain’s direction of travel continues. The IMF tells Truss to reverse the tax cuts; mortgage lenders are withdrawing more products and raising rates for new loans; the i reports that senior officials had warned the chancellor and prime minister that their plans would lead to market turmoil, but that they had been determined to press ahead.

Meanwhile Keir Starmer addresses his party conference.

These developments provide the splash for every national paper except the Star, which goes on the asteroid being blasted by NASA, the Express, which tells people to get their covid boosters and flu jabs – and the Mail, which thinks that Stephen Lawrence’s killer having a mobile phone in jail is the most important story of the day.

The Labour conference makes the 8-9 spread – “Is Keir plotting a Lib-Lab pact?” – while the economy is relegated to pages 14 and 15, where the paper reports “284 deals pulled in mortgage panic”. This spread tells the IMF to “butt out” and accuses the Bank of England of being “asleep on the job”. It also returns to Crispin Odey, reporting on his claim that “bitter Remainers” in the City were responsible for the run on the pound. This time it does mention his links to Kwarteng.

On the oped page, Alex Brummer continues the attack on Andrew Bailey, accusing him of a “muddled and flaccid” response to the growing crisis.

September 29

The Bank of England spends £65bn buying government debt to protect pension funds as the fallout from the budget continues, meanwhile ministers contemplate billions of pounds of public spending cuts. This makes the lead for every paper – including the Star and Express – but the Mail, which again splashes on the Lawrence killer.

The economic turmoil does, however, make the top of the front, having been completely absent yesterday. And there are two spreads inside. One asks if a new kind of pension fund trading is behind the chaos, the other has Tory MPs blasting the IMF, saying its warning had wreaked havoc.

On the oped, Matthew Lesh says that the IMF specialises in posturing and getting things wrong. A few pages on, Stephen Glover still likes Kwarteng, but says he needs to “wise up”. The problem lies not with the Truss-Kwarteng policies, but the way they are selling them.

The leader – “Jittery Tories risk fuelling market misery” – attacks the IMF and the Bank of England and still believes in the “bold low-tax, pro-growth mini budget”, but it is becoming concerned about Truss and Kwarteng’s presentational skills, saying they are not easing jitters by going missing while the crisis rages:

Some Tory MPs are so twitchy that they have intimated the PM and Chancellor should quit - less than a month in post.

But that would be suicidal. With Labour streets ahead in the polls, the Tories are drinking in the last chance saloon.

Changing the leader is not an option. The project was never going to yield overnight results, so they have got to get behind it. Voters will never forgive internecine warfare when they face financial misery.

September 30

Liz Truss returns to splash position with her insistence that she is sticking to her plans. On the inside, with Labour now 33 points ahead in the polls, Tory rebels are told they have to back her or lose power – a view reinforced by Daniel Hannan saying the prime minister must not back down. On the next spread, Guy Adams investigates the “real scandal” of reckless financiers gambling with our pensions.

The leader, “Defending bold tax plans is Tory duty”, is also concerned about recklessness – and for the first time, Truss is in the line of fire. It was reckless, the paper says, for her to bury her head in the sand when the public expected reassurance. Her silence was baffling:

The fact is, there has been a rabid overreaction to Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's blueprint to turbocharge growth.

Miss Truss rightly believes that by growing the size of the pie, everyone can enjoy a bigger slice … by deviating from the globalist consensus, Miss Truss has had the flame thrower turned upon her.

Yet the whole world is in economic turmoil and on the brink of going into recession. It's entirely plausible that the PM and Mr Kwarteng are ahead of the game by trying to boost growth with tax cuts - and may save us from the worst of any downturn.

So Tory MPs must shake off the delirium gripping them. That the one truly Conservative fiscal policy introduced in the past 12 years has caused such panic shows what an utter shower many are.

Some are said to have already submitted letters of no confidence in the new PM. If true, this is nothing short of insanity.

They must simply buck up and get behind Miss Truss.

October

October 1

The Moors search for Keith Bennett makes the splash and the economy is relegated to pages 14 and 15, with the “good news” being that Britain is neither in recession nor the sick man of Europe.

But Mail hands are beginning to speak up about their doubts. Andrew Neil writes that the global economy had been flooded with cheap money and so you could see why Truss and Kwarteng might have thought they could borrow to fund tax cuts and stimulate the economy. But that didn’t take into account the return of inflation.

More experienced hands, including Sunak, realised that was a game-changer. But Truss and Kwarteng were guilty of a massive and unforgiveable miscalculation when the return of inflation was there for all with eyes to see.

The leader – Don’t be turkeys, stick with Liz – is still behind the strategy, however:

The Government is right not to U-turn on the controversial mini-Budget. Leave aside that to do so would be a catastrophe, leaving Miss Truss's authority in tatters.

In fact, the policies - from protecting firms and families from ruinous energy bills to one of the biggest tax giveaways in history - are commendable. And, crucially, defendable.

So it's vital Miss Truss puts the communication failures behind her. With the right messaging, she can reassure the public and markets that she will jolt our sclerotic economy back to life responsibly, and that everyone will ultimately be better off.

October 3

The Conservatives have gathered in Birmingham. In a pre-conference interview with Laura Kuenssberg, Liz Truss had insisted that while she had “failed to prepare the ground” properly for the mini-budget, there would be no reversal on the 45p tax rate.

But by the time the Mail goes to press, she is clearly wobbling and it switches its splash from “fury” at Michael Gove for disloyalty to “Are Tories on brink of U turn?”

Kwarteng, who will be first up in front of the audience, trails his speech with a promise to “get Britain booming”, making the first inside spread. The second goes to the Truss TV interview.

The leader – Disunited Tories will reap electoral disaster - says they were right to admit to mistakes, but they should stay the course and their party should back them:

Trussonomics is a breath of fresh air, blowing away the cobwebs of the failed economic orthodoxy. Defibrillating the sluggish economy will turbocharge growth, incentivise hard work, increase wages and bring in more money for public services.

After years of politicians who change their minds with the wind, it is refreshing to have leaders who believe being right is more important than being popular.

To show that the Tories are competent though, it is imperative MPs get behind Miss Truss - and not just to stab her in the back.

October 4

The 45p tax rate is reprieved, Kwarteng is “clinging on”, and the Mail has seven pages on the U-turn.

The leader – “No more buckling on dash for growth, PM” – seeks to stiffen her resolve:

It is imperative Miss Truss holds her nerve on her radical agenda, which rejects the failed high-tax, low-growth consensus and aims to adrenalize our atrophying economy, creating jobs and prosperity.

The reality is, Miss Truss's policies are the only hope of avoiding a Labour government. Yet the rebels seem to hate her more than they fear Sir Keir Starmer and his Left-wing cranks seizing power.

October 5

The Mail looks away from the economy to splash on a promise that police will attend every burglary, but Sarah Vine has some advice for the PM in her column.

Page 2 previews Truss’s speech to conference – “stand by me and we will ALL benefit” – but the spreads further back tell a different story, with Tory chaos and civil war and more Kwarteng U-turns.

On the oped, Arthur Laffer, the 82-year-old American economist who gave his name to the “Laffer curve” showing that reducing tax rates can increase revenue, says he is dismayed by the 45p U-turn, while the leader – “First speech, new start” – confronts the possibility that this could be Truss’s one and only conference address as leader:

It is a sign of the delirium gripping the Tories that Liz Truss's first conference speech as Prime Minister could be her last.

Miss Truss understands perfectly that Britain's prosperity depends on urgently jump-starting our lethargic economy.

We wish her well today. We'd like nothing more than to hear a rousing, visionary speech that reimposes her authority, silences dissenters, and starts a new chapter for her premiership – and the country

October 6

Truss delivers her speech and the Mail is happier. Daniel Johnson notes inside that she is less awkward, more confident and wonders if this could be the turning point.

The leader – “PM’s speech should cool rebel hotheads” – also sees signs of hope and says the address proves she is the best option for leader:

She will never have Boris Johnson's flair for working an audience. But…her address was strong, reassuring, authoritative and, above all, a ringing endorsement of Tory values.

In a defiant cri de coeur, she laid out a coherent, compelling and exciting true blue vision for Britain. A place where aspiration, enterprise and prosperity triumph over the tyranny of low expectations…

Miss Truss's speech proves she's still the best option as leader. If she's dethroned, it will surely trigger a snap election.

The Conservative malcontents destabilising her have a simple choice. Get behind the PM and help lift up the nation.

Or persevere with their self-indulgent troublemaking and consign their party to electoral oblivion - and the country to the ruinous socialist clutches of Keir Starmer.

October 8

With the conference over, there are a couple of days of calm before parliament gets back to work the following week. There are still rumblings about rebellions on fracking and now Truss and Mogg are seen to be at odds about whether there should be an energy-saving ad campaign. The Mail is still worried and the leader – “Stop the plotting and unite behind PM” – again tells Tory MPs to get into line:

Liz Truss's make-or-break conference speech - in which she took aim at an 'anti-growth coalition' of Labour, militant unions and selfish eco-activists which is holding the country back - was largely well received. Markets have recovered. Dissenters, for now, have been stilled.

Meanwhile, on the international front, the Prime Minister demonstrated deft diplomacy during her trip to Prague on Thursday where she and Emmanuel Macron agreed to step up efforts to smash the evil gangs enabling the Channel crossings.

There are grounds, too, for optimism over the troublesome Northern Ireland Protocol, with the previously intransigent Irish government indicating it might finally be willing to seek a compromise.

With these positives in mind, there is no reason to believe that when Parliament returns from recess on Tuesday, Miss Truss cannot recapture the cavalier spirit of her leadership campaign and get back to her bold, tax-cutting economic agenda.

Given the terrifying alternative which awaits the country come the next election, Tory MPs must be duty bound to put away their squabbles and unite behind her.

October 10

After a weekend that saw four cabinet ministers writing newspaper columns urging their backbenchers to unite behind Truss, the prime minister starts inviting groups of them to lunches and receptions at No 10, which makes the splash for some and an inside spread for the Mail. The leader writers get a break from Tory infighting, but on the oped, Dominic Lawson backs Mogg over Truss saying the government SHOULD be telling us how to save energy.

October 11

Kwarteng is obliged to bring forward his budget statement from next month to October 31, when he is expected to publish the OBR’s assessment of his measures and to announce deep spending cuts.

The leader – “Time for a fresh start” – says that now is the opportunity for Tories to consign their febrile conference to history and push the reset button:

Supporting Liz Truss's bold growth agenda, and so making families and businesses better off, is the only way the Conservatives can turn around their pitiful poll ratings and avoid annihilation come the election. After a dreadful month, the Tories must now show unity, discipline, clarity of message and leadership. A divided party will simply hand the keys of No 10 to Labour - with all the misery that will entail.

October 12

Parliament returns with Kwarteng straight into the firing line with Treasury questions. While he is defending his budget, the Bank of England says it can’t afford to keep bailing out pension funds and that it will stop intervening on Friday. This sends the pound in reverse and has Alex Brummer raging on the oped page. He and the leader writers agree that the mini budget was mishandled, but they say the whole world is suffering.

“The presentation of Liz Truss and Kwarteng's £45billion of unfunded tax cuts and the failure to have them properly audited by the Office for Budget Responsibility led to chaos,” writes Brummer, while the leader – “Global turmoil” – turns its fire on the BBC and “the Left”:

Listening to the shrieks of the Left and the BBC, one might think the Government's mishandled mini-Budget had singlehandedly crashed the economy.

Yes, it caused a temporary slump in the pound. Yes, interest rates are back to historically typical levels. And yes, we face pain from high energy prices and inflation.

As Liz Truss warns, the economic outlook is gloomier than at any time since the financial crash. But while the immediate future is bleak, the UK is not alone in this turmoil. The entire world is suffering a hangover from lockdown and Russia's war.

October 13

Truss is back in the Commons for PMQs, but the real story is happening in the markets which are on the slide again as the Bank’s cut-off point approaches. Anger at the governor makes the first spread for the Mail, with Truss facing Starmer across the despatch box playing second fiddle.

There is also irritation with the Economist over a leader calling Truss “The Iceberg Lady” because she had the shelf life of a lettuce. [This was a notion the Daily Star would pick up and run with over the coming days – to the point of streaming a webcam of a lettuce. The stunt earned it a lot of approving coverage, but two things struck me: first, the Star should have credited the Economist in some way for the original idea and, second, the Mail didn’t seem to find it necessary to criticise this more widely publicised version of the same insult.]

The leader – “Malcontents’ mayhem” – replayed a familiar theme:

Liz Truss's dash for growth is already limping badly after she made a pig's ear of presenting her ambitious mini-Budget and was forced into humiliating U-turns.

She is, however, severely hamstrung by Tory rebels.

Miss Truss's plan, which sticks to Conservative principles, is the right one - and they should get behind it. The truth is, it is the only conceivable way the Tories can avoid impending electoral oblivion.

October 14

For all the Mail’s cajoling, Tory MPs are still plotting and are reportedly eyeing a Sunak-Mordaunt dream ticket. Everything, it seems, will hinge on the chancellor’s statement on October 31 and whether that calms the markets – and the party.

The Mail splashes that the PM has 17 days to save her job, speculates inside about another U-turn – this time on corporation tax – and allows its political editor to contemplate a Sunak or even Johnson premiership.

The leader – “Liz Truss must turn things round – fast” – is still in her corner – just – and it really, really doesn’t want a change of leadership:

If the markets remain spooked, heaping mortgage and pensions misery on millions, and Labour are still out of sight in the polls, Miss Truss's enemies in the Conservative parliamentary party will surely act.

They should think twice. If they did strike, it wouldn't just be like turkeys voting for Christmas, but switching on the oven and peeling the potatoes too.

Tory MPs need to remember they are there to deliver Boris Johnson's 2019 manifesto which gave them their biggest majority in half a lifetime.

If they don't and instead try to install a new leader, it will be chaos – even more so than now (if such a thing is possible).

October 15

Kwarteng is summoned back from key international meetings in Washington to be sacked – hours after telling the BBC’s Faisal Islam “I’m going nowhere”. Jeremy Hunt is rushed in as chancellor and promptly junks most of the budget, including the cut in corporation tax.

After weeks of blaming the Left, the markets, the Bank of England, Putin and restless Tory MPs in defence of its woman, the Mail splash is brutal:

Her first 38 days in office have proved some of the most shambolic in British political history.

But yesterday – Liz Truss's 39th day in Downing Street – saw the chaos, confusion and flip-flopping reach extraordinary new extremes.

To the astonishment of Westminster and beyond, she abandoned her flagship cuts to corporation tax and brutally sacked her friend and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng – all in a bid to save her failing premiership.

Inside, there are seven pages plus a full-page leader, which defends the paper’s view that she was the right choice for leader and her strategy – if not her execution of it. It recognises that time is running out, but clings to the “where there’s life…” philosophy that she might yet turn things around:

The Tory Party membership, all too easily dismissed as unrepresentative and out of touch, chose Liz Truss. The Mail supported that choice… alas, nobody can pretend that Ms Truss's few frantic weeks in Downing Street have fulfilled the promise she seemed to show. On the contrary, it is impossible to argue that her premiership thus far has been anything other than a disaster.

Even Liz Truss's most loyal allies, viewing the matter through the most rose-tinted glasses available, must now wonder how she can survive. Yet what is the alternative? Another interminable leadership election of the sort we have just endured would be impossible, and might come up with an answer just as misguided as it provided the first time around.

Where there's life there's hope and, of course, it's still just possible that Truss, one of the Tory party's great survivors, may pull off some kind of miracle recovery.

But if she doesn't get her act together – and lightning fast – the message will surely spread throughout the Tory party that the only conceivable hope of winning the next election lies in an intelligent, swift and universally accepted resolution of this crisis.