Audience Metrics: Brave New World Ahead?

Having agreed to the in-depth disclosure provided in the ABC nonpaid "verified" circulation reporting category that took effect in first-half 06, publishers now face demands for discounts or rebates on copies deemed by individual media buyers to be excessive in number or percentage, not targeted enough for a given advertiser, or being included in some statements solely to make rate base. (Newsstand fluctuations are apparently not deemed relevant.)

Advertisers and media buyers are calling for adding another layer of rules to verified — and, to pre-empt further complications, publishers themselves may propose collapsing some other, currently paid categories into verified.

The fear, however, is that whether or not such proposals pass at ABC’s July board meeting, and even if rules revamping calms down over time, buyers’ hyper-scrutiny of one or another aspect of circulation could go on indefinitely.

At this year’s Circulation Management Conference, National Geographic Magazine group president John Griffin stressed that publishers are devoting inordinate time and resources to such parrying, and need to focus instead on how they’ll succeed in the rapidly shifting media environment.

This and other factors have created a groundswell of support among major publishers for taking the focus off circulation metrics in favour of audience metrics — the ultimate goal being "total audience" metrics, or combined print and web readers / users.

Competitive Disadvantage

Audience metrics could provide media companies with solutions on several fronts. As Griffin noted, the growing importance of web advertising means that their business models are going to be even more driven by advertising than in the past. But advertisers want to commit as late as possible, and get an immediate read on their ROI. The web’s ability to deliver fast audience numbers is of course a major draw (as are Nielsen’s overnight TV audience ratings), making the slowness of both circulation and traditional print syndicated audience data a greater competitive disadvantage than ever for magazines.

Print audience data has long been the key metric in determining the magazines included in media plans. But given questions about the data’s validity (it’s self-reported by consumers), as well as lengthy lags in its release, the advertising community has continued to hold fast to the security of using circulation rate bases for buying and accountability.

However, change is in the wind. Buyers’ demand for greater speed has already caused the dominant syndicated research supplier, Mediamark Research Inc (MRI), to offer a new service that will provide issue-specific data showing the rate at which about 200 magazines accumulate readership. Depending on the reception to this, print audience metrics could become the coin of the realm over time, at least for larger magazines (smaller magazines aren’t included in the syndicated studies).

An audience-focused metric would enable an end to rate base guarantees (or at least reductions in rate base levels, in the short term), allowing publishers to drop sources that are unprofitable, or do not contribute meaningfully to measured audience levels.

Indeed, Time magazine reduced its rate base when it began trying to sell based on an audience guarantee early this year. Time Inc initially said it would be guaranteeing a total print / web audience, but seems to have scaled that back in favour of a print audience guarantee. Time says advertisers are getting on board; others say the reception has been tepid. Still, it’s a bold initiative, and one that could generate more heat once backed by by-issue audience metrics.

Looking further ahead, publishers believe that combined print / web audience metrics would make magazines and their overall brands even more comparable to, and competitive with, other media, supporting the growth of both print and web advertising.

Key industry research groups are working with MRI on developing combined print / web metrics systems, including a version for newspapers — although with print-only audience metrics (not to mention web metrics) still in transition, industry adoption of total audience systems certainly won’t happen overnight.

Audience Developers

What does all this mean for magazine consumer marketers?

Griffin says that they need to prepare to be evaluated on the basis of their contributions to print and web audience size and quality. Time Inc president, consumer marketing, Brian Wolfe stresses that, in addition to becoming increasingly adept at acquiring print subscriptions from web users, circulators need to strive to "own the research agendas" for their brands’ sites, including editorial content / design, as well as target audience. And audience metrics mavens say that database and modelling skills that can be applied to the web will also be in increasing demand.

In short, consumer marketers look to be on the road to becoming audience developers.