According to Euromoney Institutional Investor:
Trading
Since issuing its trading update on July 21, 2016, trading has continued in line with the board's expectations, although financial markets have been subject to increased volatility and uncertainty following the UK's Brexit vote in June. Underlying revenues for the fourth quarter, which exclude the impact of currency movements and acquisitions and disposals, are expected to have declined by 5% from the same period last year, largely due to the group intentionally reducing the number of commodity events and training courses run. Reported revenues for the quarter are expected to show a 2% increase, largely as a result of more favourable exchange rates.
Underlying subscription revenues for the fourth quarter are expected to have increased by 2%, a further improvement on the 1% underlying increase in the third quarter, as the group starts to see the benefits from the strategic initiatives being taken around new products, pricing and sales. Underlying advertising revenues, which are especially bank dependent, are expected to show a decline of 8% for the quarter, a little better than the third quarter but still broadly consistent with the long-term trend for advertising.
After a robust third quarter for events, particularly in the areas of finance and telecoms, underlying sponsorship and delegate revenues are expected to fall by 13% in the final quarter. Although the event numbers benefit from easier comparatives after the sharp decline in commodity markets in 2015, sponsorship and delegate revenues have declined as the group took actions earlier in the year to cut the number of commodity events and eliminate unprofitable training activities.
Reported total revenues for the year to September 30, 2016 are expected to show a 1% decrease on last year, and an underlying decrease (after adjusting for a biennial event in the first half) of 4%.
The group expects to announce an adjusted profit before tax of no less than £100 million for the year to September 30, 2016 (2015: £107.8 million).
Financial Position
At current exchange rates, group net cash at September 30, 2016 is expected to be no less than £80 million, against £83 million at
June 30. Significant non-operating cash flows since June 30 include the acquisition of FastMarkets for £13 million at the end of August.
