Intriguing stats on the US publishing / media scene

A recent research odyssey, across industry association, press, government and media owner / media agency websites turned up a mother lode of data and trends. Here are some selected nuggets that provide a snapshot of a media industry engaged in reinventing itself, starting with some internet statistics that help put the B2B and consumer statistics in context. Many of these points deserve closer inspection: see future installments.

Impacts of the internet

* As of 2004, the internet accounted for 6% of total US advertising revenue, versus 8% for magazines, 30% for newspapers and 44% for TV. Further, it accounted for 13% of all time spent on media consumption, versus 4% for magazines, 7% for newspapers and 40% for TV. (Source: Various data sources, analysed by the Jordan Edmiston Group, Inc)
* According to TNS Media Intelligence, in 2005, the internet, for the second year in a row, led all other media in ad spend gains, posting an impressive year-over-year gain of 21.4%, to $7.4 billion (up 72% since 2000). The internet’s share of adjusted US ad spending rose to 6.1% in 2004, from 4.3% in 2000.
* A just-released Merrill Lynch forecast predicts that US internet ad spend will jump by 27.8%, to $14.5 billion, this year — surpassing a major traditional medium, consumer magazines, for the first time. (ML projects magazine ad spend growth at 2.5%, to $13.2 billion.)
* Jupiter Research projects that US online display and search ad spend will grow at an average annual rate of 10% between 2005 and 2010, reaching $15 billion. The Search Engine Marketing Professional Organisation projects that, in North America, SEM spending alone will reach $11 billion by 2010.

B2B trends

* US B2B print advertising continues a slow recovery from the devastating effects of the last recession. According to Business Information Network (BIN), which tracks advertising for American Business Media (ABM), B2B publication ad spending increased by 5.4% in 2005, to $10.7 billion, and ad pages grew by 3.9%, to 933,117.
* ABM is projecting 4% to 5% B2B publication ad revenue growth for 2006. However, TNS Media Intelligence predicts B2B print ad growth of just 1%, in comparison with projected US total media ad spend growth of 5.4%.
* According to the Standard Periodical Directory, US business publications declined from 2,505 to 1,126 between 1996 and 2006.
* B2B media companies continue to realize their greatest growth from new media offerings and tradeshows. Online media are expected to continue to outperform all other revenue sources for ABM members, with projected growth of 20% to 22%, and a healthy 6%-7% revenue gain is projected for tradeshows.
* The latest Veronis Suhler Stevenson Communications Industry Forecast and Report, for the forecast period 2005-2009, confirms that B2B media growth, as a whole, accelerated in 2005, fueled by a 6.1% growth in trade show spending and a 26.5% jump in e-media spending. Total B2B spending is expected to reach $27.68 billion by 2009, growing 5.8% on a compound annual basis.

Consumer trends

* According to Publishers Information Bureau (PIB), consumer magazines ended 2005 up 7.2% in ad revenue (to $23.1 billion), although up just 0.5% in ad pages. Ad pages rose within eight of the 12 major advertising categories. Growth was depressed mainly by tech marketers, who reduced magazine ad pages by 7.9%, and automakers, who cut pages by 7.1%.
* Moderate ad growth is expected in 2006. Through February 2006, ad pages were up 0.3% and revenue was up 3% over the same period in 2005. Universal McCann forecasts a 2006 increase of 5.5% in national advertising expenditures in consumer magazines, to $13.6 billion.
* According to analyses by consultant Baird Davis, for Circulation Management magazine, in first-half 2005, combined consumer magazine circulation rose by 0.3%, to 287 million, despite new audit bureau requirements for greater disclosure of sponsored circulation. Newsstand sales were flat, but the newsstand’s contribution to total circulation declined from 18.4% in first-half 2004 to an all-time low of 17.8% (because the aggregate subscription level rose by about 2.5 million).
* Recent industry financial surveys indicate that consumer magazine profit margins remain strong overall (in part, because of honed operational cost efficiencies). But the push to turn print-based brands into cross-media franchises has clearly become a driving focus. To date, data on revenue and profits derived from such efforts is hard to come by. However, increasingly rich website content, and a plethora of new digital-based offerings, ranging from podcasts to mobile phone services to video formats, provide ample evidence of this direction — as do recent moves by majors to formalise digital within their structures (Hearst Magazines’ new digital division, and Meredith’s new video division, for example).