Jan-June 2005 ABCs: a media buyer’s view

So, a new crop of ABCs, with fanfares for some and discreet shuffling in the corner for others. But is it really as black and white as the perceived winners would have us believe? It’s only by digging deeper into the figures that we planners and buyers unearth what is happening in the dynamic marketplace that is magazines at the moment and use that information to best effect for our clients. But it’s not just the agency and client side that can glean more by scratching beneath the surface; there are countless lessons to learn for publishers and sales team alike by uncovering just what these figures represent and looking into how they came about.

The figures, en masse, are fantastic for disciples of the printed page; 62 million copies were sold in this period. January to June 2005 saw an increase from the same period last year of over 10% (that’s over six million copies) - more people than ever are turning to the newsstand and picking a consumer magazine to spend their precious time with! Hooray for us luddites! Only a few years ago we press heads were told that the high speed, high tech world evolving around us would all too easily make the great ship press, and all who sailed in her, redundant, floundering in the wake of the internet, interactive TV, i-pods and anything else beginning with an ‘i’ that needed plugging in.

Now, I could examine the different genres, giving a commentary on the ranking of each title and the whys and wherefores of how one title soared to the top of its sector. You have doubtless read numerous summaries, digests and bulletins that have winged their way to your inboxes, virtual or otherwise. The problem with these is that they tend to look at the headline figures, the average net circulation, but increasingly you will find that any media buyers worth their salt will be willing to trade not on these figures, but on the numbers behind the headlines, so it’s these I have focused on.

Active purchase

Active purchase is one of the most obvious areas to refer to when trying to determine whether a title is flying high or not. In recent years, our attention has been increasingly drawn to this part of the certificate, following the decision made by several publishers to discard their bulks entirely, or at the very least strip them from the figures that are released. The value of these copies varies considerably, dependent upon exactly who they are being distributed to, how, where and when. Granted, this is not now necessarily applicable to many titles within the larger publishing stables, who have removed these figures altogether, but this is one area that would benefit greatly from a bit more transparency. With top-line info about where these bulks are going, planners and buyers would be able to make informed decisions on the value of the bulks, based on the auditors’ information rather than ruling them out entirely, or relying on the anecdotal evidence supplied by the media owners themselves.

Monthly figures

The ABC currently presents us with a wealth of data that can enlighten us all, buying and selling alike, however that doesn’t mean to say we don’t want more. We at MediaCom could be accused of sounding like a broken record, so prolific and repetitive has been our petitioning of both the ABC and the publishers themselves to be even more transparent when releasing circulation data. This lobbying has paid off in part; Natmags has continued in its groundbreaking pledge to deliver monthly circulation figures for us to digest. Whilst some may choose not to use this data when making planning and buying decisions, we are confident that, by observing this data, we can plan more efficiently and in partnership with publishers to ensure we trade more effectively. Obviously the figures are historic and I don’t, at the moment, envisage a television-esque trading approach for press where we compensate for short comings or reimburse over delivery. However, observing trends across the first few periods that have been released has already proved insightful and useful in phasing plans, and I’d hope that Mr Edwards would agree that this hasn’t been at the detriment of Natmag’s purse strings!

What we would say is more of the same from the rest of the publishing fraternity please. But let me step off the soapbox and take a look at the tales the tables tell.

Variance tracking

The only detail currently available that gives us a semblance of this issue by issue data is the variance information. Each title has to declare the issues that sell anything more or less than 20% off its average net figure. This goes someway to revealing just what was sold copy by copy, but it’s just not enough. Once presented with this detail we can investigate further, plough through the archives and draw our own conclusions as to why these issues may have been big sellers or what made them cling to the newsstand. However we will never fully appreciate just how close other issues were to this marker and whilst it’s set at 20% it can mean a difference of up to one hundred thousand copy sales to some magazines.

A case in point comes from the ever effervescent weekly marketplace, which yet again saw new entrants this period. Grabbing the headlines this time around were the new launches Pick Me Up and Grazia, more on this later. The appearance in the variances table of numerous weekly issues, with certain titles’ circulations rising and falling significantly throughout the period was very insightful. Upon initial examination one could conclude that readers of these magazines are the most fickle, flitting from one title to another on a whim, or a cover-line. Both Hello and OK! saw a number of issues sit above and below the 20% spirit level, as did new kid on the block from IPC, Pick Me Up. Is the slump in sales of two issues at the tail end of the audit period a sign of things to come in upcoming issues? Only time (and a new audit) will tell.

ABC data tells us more than just the buying habits of the magazine reading population. By observing the shifts from title to title, and sector to sector, we get an interesting commentary on the shifting trends of the wider population. Sometimes these social trends are led by other media and magazines serve to feed the addiction that TV, for example, has triggered. Such as was the case in the late nineties when the likes of Changing Rooms re-invigorated the home interest sector and the Big Brother revolution of recent years fuelled the celebrity weekly titles. Increasingly, now, it is the magazines themselves that are setting the cultural agenda. It’s the sociological stories behind the numbers that can help us as planners and buyers make the right decisions and publishers make the right magazines.

Women’s monthlies

The women’s monthly magazines provide the biggest cultural insight this period. This was always going to be a hot sector with the emergence of a new title in the form of Easy Living, from the current reigning champions of successful monthly launches, Conde Nast. The intention to replicate the behemoth that is Glamour was never there - this time round there wasn’t a new fun format to entice readers, but the lower cover price and promise of something different was consistent. With a debut figure of 171,038 it is a very respectable base upon which to build, but instead of running scared, its most direct competitor, Natmags’ Good Housekeeping, posted its best ABC in nine years. Whilst the entire sector’s growth can largely be attributed to the debutant, it’s great to see that its readership has not been siphoned from its nearest and, not so dearest.

Reliability could be seen as the key in this area, both in the editorial proposition (testing the best products on the market, delivering a trusted seal of approval) but also in the readers themselves. They can be relied upon to buy issue after issue, solely because they have signed on the dotted line and parted with their cash in advance to subscribe to their magazine. GH has always been successful in getting readers to subscribe in droves; this period included a huge 45% of sales, nearly one in two, being subscriptions to the matriarch of this sector. But it seems that the rest of the pack has latched on, with subs levels rising across every title in this sector, with the exception of Sainsbury’s Magazine.

Front of the queue

Now in second place in the general interest sector behind GH, subscription levels are not the issue for this supermarket magazine, which takes pride of place till side. Pushing itself quite literally to the front of the queue at a distribution channel which, I understand, accounts for approx 5% of total magazines sales is doubtless the secret to this title’s success, but distribution is not the only factor. Mastering this and combining it with award winning editorial, a low cover price and added value for readers in the form of monthly coupons, has seen one of the largest year-on-year increases in actively purchased copies across the magazine marketplace.

So, with a new title and significant sales growth for a number of core titles, the general interest sector really is on the up. Compared to a one percent year-on-year growth across the glamorous glossy monthlies, the whole sector improved over 12% on last years’ figures and this is where social dynamics come into play. Whereas, in recent years, fashion ruled the roost, the fact that the more practical titles are now more than holding their own implies that priorities are changing and whilst women relish the low-down on new trends in the fashion world, getting their ‘me-time’ right is now much more important. Priorities are changing again and shifting back to the home and readers are turning to different magazines to get their fix of how to make the most of life. She Magazine is a case in point, having tried to cater for women who juggle their lives, focusing on hearts, minds and shopping. A disastrous ABC performance has prompted a dramatic re-vamp scheduled for its October issue, promising "a magazine of substance, a real-life social navigator." Another illustration of this point is the re-launch of Essentials as a handbag sized digest for modern life. Whether the new size and content has made a difference won’t be apparent until the next audit period. With Pyschologies, the new monthly launch from Hachette Filipacchi coming up, it appears that the more holistic approach to lifestyle editorial is definitely here to stay.

The weeklies

The weeklies sector would, on first impression, appear to contradict this trend, with the celebrity titles still pulling in impressive circulations and new title Grazia elbowing its way into the handbags of over 150,000 women with its first ABC. This is the most glamorous foray into the weekly sector we have seen, but a flick through the pages will show that the editorial pillars include not only high fashion, but food, interiors and an increasingly popular property page. Yes, these women want to look good, but they also want to feel good, to coin a phase, at work, rest and play. This well rounded approach explains Grazia’s weekly sibling Closers’ continued success and is indicative of the rest of the weekly sector. Whilst there can be no doubt that celebrity content is still crucial in this marketplace, it would appear that when it is mixed with real life it becomes a potent concoction. What’s more, this more down to earth approach can also be seen in the newest sector of them all - the men’s weeklies who rely on the girls next door, rather than the Hollywood starlets to draw in over half a million men week in, week out.

Teen titles

Another area which divulges more information about shifting social trends than simple sales data is the teen magazine sector. Increasingly this genre has struggled to achieve the high circulations of the mid nineties, when pester power had kids clambering to get the latest products and playground gossip was a commodity as valuable as Crazy Frog ring-tones are now. The teen magazines fuelled this insatiable desire for news, partnered with all manner of lip glosses, glow in the dark pens and pop band posters to entice the kids to buy. So, whilst the rest of the magazine marketplace is enjoying a surge in interest, teenage titles have become as misunderstood as the readership they are trying to attract. Whereas other magazine sectors are holding their own alongside the familiar demands on time imposed on readers, teenage titles aren’t as attractive to an all too difficult to please young crowd, who don’t care as much for reliability, but want a quick thrill and want it now. This is the generation for whom experience is preferable to ownership, as the craze for downloads and ring-tones has illustrated and there are countless demands on the pocket money in their hands. Whilst it’s easy to identify the problem, it’s not so easy to suggest a solution as the publishers of these titles will know only too well.

Perhaps the general euphoria surrounding the successful figures for magazines, as a whole, should be toned down a tad, when we remember that it is these young readers who determine the future of the marketplace. If they fall out of love with magazines now, it will be all the more difficult to romance them back in a few years’ time.